Britain’s heavy reliance on China for net zero technologies such as batteries could put as many as 90,000 manufacturing jobs at risk in the event of a major supply chain shock, according to a new report.
Analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that a severe disruption to battery component supplies, lasting as little as a year, could cripple the UK’s automotive industry, sharply reducing electric vehicle production and threatening factory jobs across the country.
The report models a scenario in which geopolitical conflict, such as a crisis over Taiwan, or a natural disaster disrupts Chinese battery manufacturing and processing. In that event, UK battery and car production could fall by nearly half, with widespread knock-on effects across supply chains.
Researchers estimate that around 67,000 jobs in EV manufacturing, 8,000 in battery production and almost 15,000 roles across the wider battery supply chain would be placed at risk, taking the total to roughly 90,000 jobs.
The IPPR argues that China’s dominance of battery materials and components gives Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers a built-in advantage over UK and European rivals, particularly during periods of disruption.
China is the world’s largest producer of batteries and battery inputs, including refined lithium, cathodes and anodes. Even where the UK sources battery cells from Europe or Japan, the report notes that many of those manufacturers themselves rely on Chinese raw materials, leaving Britain indirectly exposed.
By 2030, the IPPR estimates that 47% of UK battery cell demand will still be met through imports. For cathodes, that figure rises to 80%, while anodes are expected to be entirely imported. In the event of a supply interruption, battery output could fall by 50%, resulting in around 583,000 fewer electric vehicles being built in a single year.
Pranesh Narayanan, research director at the IPPR, said the UK’s exposure reflects the growing fragility of global trade.
“The UK is a small open trading nation sailing through an international economy whose waters are getting choppier by the day,” he said. “Trade wars, geopolitical conflict and global shocks ultimately hurt the UK because we rely so heavily on overseas supply chains for essentials, including clean energy technologies.”
To reduce the risk, the IPPR is urging ministers to accelerate domestic production of key battery components and critical minerals, while also diversifying international supply chains away from overdependence on any single country.
The report suggests encouraging joint ventures between UK firms and Asian manufacturers, alongside targeted industrial support to build resilience into the supply chain.
Laura Chappell, a researcher at the IPPR, said that economic resilience should become a core objective of British foreign and industrial policy.
“Diplomats should be working to build partnerships that underpin Britain’s future energy security,” she said. “These can be win-wins, supporting jobs and growth both in the UK and in partner countries.”
The findings are likely to sharpen debate in Whitehall over the national security implications of the net zero transition. A separate report last year by the Royal United Services Institute warned that excessive reliance on China for clean energy technologies posed strategic risks.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has faced criticism from Conservatives, who argue that his push for a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2030 risks “binding Britain to Beijing” through increased use of Chinese solar panels and batteries.
The government has previously rejected that characterisation, insisting it will “never compromise national security” and arguing that the greater long-term risk lies in continued reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets dominated by authoritarian states.
However, the IPPR report adds fresh urgency to calls for a more muscular industrial strategy, warning that without decisive action, Britain’s net zero ambitions could leave key sectors of its manufacturing base dangerously exposed.
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Net zero reliance on China ‘puts 90,000 UK jobs at risk’, think tank warns
