Updated 28 October 2026. Spot gold traded at $4,037.98 an ounce at 04:57 GMT on Wednesday, down 0.6 percent, with December US gold futures at $4,051.32 (Investing.com). On Tuesday gold climbed more than 1 percent to about $4,065 as oil fell for a second day (FXStreet). Verdict: gold is holding above $4,000 into the Fed decision at 2 pm ET, but the bounce has already faded once, oil is rising again on a Houthi refinery claim, and the market still prices an 84 percent chance of a December hike. Reference levels: $3,940 below, $4,125 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $4,037.98, down 0.6 percent, and December US gold futures $4,051.32, down 0.6 percent, at 00:57 ET (04:57 GMT) on Wednesday 28 October; spot silver $53.91, down 0.9 percent; the US Dollar Index up 0.1 percent at 102.42 (Investing.com).
- Tuesday: gold rose to about $4,065 in the early Asian session, up 1.15 percent on the day, as softer oil eased inflation worries (FXStreet, 23:18 GMT on 27 October).
- The low: on Friday 23 October spot gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July and touched $3,975.23, ending its steepest weekly decline since June (Reuters).
- Fed odds: CME FedWatch prices a 6.6 percent chance of a hike today, a 92.8 percent chance of a hold at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, and 84.4 percent odds of a December hike (FXStreet). The September meeting delivered the first rate increase in three years.
- Analysts: Peter Grant of Zaner Metals said softer oil prices “will probably provide some lift for gold.” Scotiabank said gold looks “increasingly vulnerable” as it tries to hold $4,000 (FXStreet).
- Floor and pressure: ANZ said Chinese household buying has set a floor under prices, while gold has been sold to cover losses as the AI trade unwound (Investing.com).
- The calendar: Fed statement at 2 pm ET and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 pm today; September PCE and third-quarter GDP at 8:30 am ET on Thursday 29 October.
Oil turned, and gold followed
This week’s relationship is simple: lower oil means less inflation pressure, fewer hike bets and a better day for gold. Monday and Tuesday showed it, as Brent slid on the Tehran talks and gold recovered from its three-month low to about $4,065. Wednesday showed the reverse. The Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, Brent rose 1.3 percent to $115.59 (see our Brent coverage), and gold gave back 0.6 percent with the dollar firmer.
The technical picture is still fragile. FXStreet’s daily chart has gold below its 20-day and 100-day moving averages with the 14-day RSI at 41, support at the lower Bollinger band near $4,015 and resistance at the 20-day midline near $4,125, then the 100-day average near $4,220. Our desk’s technical note from Tuesday framed the same rebound off the $4,000 zone with $4,095 as the first target.
What the Fed has to say
A hold is priced. What moves gold is the December language. If Warsh leaves the door open to a second hike, the market keeps its 84 percent December pricing and the dollar holds its gains; if he leans on lower oil and softer data, gold gets room to retest $4,065 and the 20-day line. Our Fed preview sets out what the statement needs to say. Thursday’s PCE report is the second test within 24 hours.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,940 | Warsh signals December, PCE runs hot and Ras Tanura damage is confirmed, pushing oil and the dollar higher; Friday’s $3,975.23 low breaks. | About 2.4 percent below Wednesday’s $4,037.98. |
| Base | $4,000-$4,075 | A hold with December left open; gold chops around $4,000 into PCE. | The $4,000 level to just above Tuesday’s $4,065 high. |
| Bull | $4,125 | A less hawkish Warsh, a soft PCE print and oil back below $114. | FXStreet’s 20-day midline, about 2.2 percent above Wednesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm ET: the Fed statement, then Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 pm.
- Oil: any Saudi confirmation of damage at Ras Tanura.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am ET: September PCE and third-quarter GDP.
- $3,975: Friday’s three-month low; a daily close under it would confirm the breakdown.
- $4,125: the 20-day midline; a close above it would end the near-term bearish bias.
Quick take: Gold is near $4,038 on Wednesday, down 0.6 percent after Tuesday’s 1 percent bounce, as oil rose on a Houthi refinery claim and the dollar firmed before the Fed. A hold is priced; December language and Thursday’s PCE decide the week. Expect $4,000-$4,075. A dovish tilt opens $4,125; a hawkish one with hot PCE opens $3,940.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,037.98 an ounce at 04:57 GMT on Wednesday 28 October 2026, down 0.6 percent. December US gold futures were $4,051.32 (Investing.com).
Why is gold down today?
The dollar edged higher before the Fed decision and oil rose after the Houthis claimed a strike on a Saudi refinery, reviving inflation worries that support rate-hike bets (Investing.com; Reuters).
Will the Fed hike rates today?
Markets price a hold. CME FedWatch put the odds of a hike today at 6.6 percent and of a December hike at 84.4 percent (FXStreet).
What time is the Fed decision?
The statement is due at 2 pm ET on 28 October, with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET.
What was gold’s recent low?
Spot gold touched $3,975.23 on Friday 23 October, its first move below $4,000 since mid-July (Reuters).
What is the silver price today?
Spot silver was $53.91 an ounce at 04:57 GMT on Wednesday, down 0.9 percent (Investing.com).
Sources: Investing.com (Wednesday spot and futures prices, silver, dollar index, ANZ view, 28 October 2026); FXStreet (Tuesday rally, CME FedWatch odds, Zaner Metals and Scotiabank comments, technical levels, 27 October); Reuters (Friday low and weekly decline, Houthi refinery claim); CNBC (Wednesday Brent move).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious metals prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.