Updated 3 November 2026, before the US open. Palantir (PLTR) traded at about $167.48 in Tuesday’s premarket session at 8:09am ET, down 6.1 percent from Monday’s $178.34 close (Yahoo Finance), after third-quarter results that beat on every headline line: revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96 percent, and full-year guidance raised to $8.53 billion. Verdict: the market is selling the bookings, not the revenue. Total contract value grew just 6 percent, and that is what the stock has to get past. Reference levels: $155 below, $184 above.
Key facts
- Revenue: $2.313 billion, up 96 percent year on year, against $2.18 billion expected (LSEG via CNBC). It is the first quarter above $2 billion.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.44 against $0.41 expected; net income rose to $1.13 billion from about $476 million (CNBC).
- US commercial revenue: $984 million, up 148 percent and above the $937 million expected (TradingKey). It passed US government revenue, $953 million, for the first time (CNBC).
- Fourth-quarter guide: $2.649-$2.653 billion, against an LSEG average of $2.46 billion (TradingKey).
- Full-year guide: revenue raised to $8.530-$8.534 billion from $8.150-$8.158 billion (TradingKey); US commercial revenue now “in excess of” $3.56 billion, up from $3.42 billion (CNBC).
- The weak line: total contract value of $2.918 billion, up 6 percent after 49 percent growth in the second quarter; US commercial TCV rose 11 percent after more than 153 percent the quarter before (TipRanks).
- Price path: $184.11 Friday close, $178.34 Monday close (down 3.1 percent before the report), $171.52 after hours (Investing.com), about $167.48 Tuesday premarket (Yahoo Finance). Benzinga quoted a premarket low of $163.92, down 8.1 percent.
The quarter: almost nothing to fault
On the income statement this was one of Palantir’s strongest reports. Revenue nearly doubled, the adjusted operating margin reached 62 percent ($1.427 billion), and the company’s “Rule of 40” score – revenue growth plus margin – rose three points to 158 (Investing.com call transcript). US commercial customers reached 686, up 29 percent year on year. The company also raised its full-year targets for adjusted operating income to $5.245-$5.249 billion and adjusted free cash flow to $4.8-$5.0 billion.
Chief executive Alex Karp was not modest about it: “I don’t believe anyone’s had consistent results like this in the history of software AI, ever,” he said (CNBC). On the call he added that the company’s “somewhat crazy aspiration to take the whole market doesn’t look that crazy right now” (Investing.com).
Why the stock is falling anyway
Palantir’s valuation prices in growth for years, not quarters, so investors watch the deals it signs today as much as the revenue it books. That is where the report was softer. Total contract value, the value of deals closed in the quarter, grew 6 percent. US commercial TCV was $1.463 billion, up 11 percent, and US commercial remaining deal value, at $6.517 billion, was up 79 percent from a year ago but only 4 percent from the second quarter (TipRanks, Investing.com).
Chief financial officer David Glazer gave the reason: “We signed multiple eight-figure deals in the quarter that were shorter in duration than usual,” as customers started with the company’s first Sovereign AI products, and he expects contract length and size to grow over time (Investing.com). Shorter contracts mean less value booked up front, even when the customer count is rising. The market’s read is that bookings growth has slowed; the company’s read is that it is a timing effect. The next two quarters decide which one is right.
The stock was also already weak before the print. It closed at $198.73 on 27 October and lost about 10 percent in the four sessions before the report, including 6.3 percent on Friday (Yahoo Finance), as AI and chip stocks sold off. Our Palantir stock prediction page set out the longer-range scenarios from Friday’s $184.11 close.
What analysts did after the report
Most of the reported target changes went up, not down, even as the stock fell (Benzinga, Investing.com):
- Morgan Stanley (Sanjit Singh): Equal-Weight kept, target raised to $233 from $205.
- Piper Sandler (Clarke Jeffries): Overweight kept, target raised to $235 from $231.
- Truist: target raised to $250, lifting its 2026 revenue growth estimate to 91 percent.
- Baird: Outperform and $250 target reiterated.
- Cantor Fitzgerald (Thomas Blakey): Neutral, $207 target kept.
- RBC Capital: Underperform kept, target raised to $130.
Before the report, the consensus was a Moderate Buy from 25 analysts with an average target of $221.27 (TipRanks). The spread, from RBC’s $130 to $250, shows how far apart the views on valuation remain.
Palantir this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | PLTR | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $155 | The premarket drop holds into the session, the TCV slowdown becomes the story and the September lows give way while AMD and Super Micro report tonight into a weak chip tape. | Below the $164.55 low of 10 September (Yahoo Finance), the two-month low the stock is now near; about 7 percent under the premarket price. |
| Base | $160-$178 | Buyers take the revenue beat and the raised guide against the soft bookings, and the stock trades between the premarket low area and Monday’s close. | Benzinga’s $163.92 premarket quote to Monday’s $178.34 close. |
| Bull | $184 | The market accepts Glazer’s shorter-contract explanation, the target raises draw dip buyers and the stock recovers Monday’s pre-report loss. | Friday’s $184.11 close; about 10 percent above the premarket price. |
The bear case sits below the current price. Analyst targets, all but RBC’s above it, are listed separately above. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The open against $171.52: the after-hours price. A session that stays below it confirms the premarket selling.
- $164.55: the 10 September low. A close below it would be the lowest since August.
- AMD and Super Micro tonight: both report after the close on 3 November; another weak chip session would weigh on AI names generally.
- More rating changes: so far the reported moves are target raises. A downgrade on the TCV slowdown would change the tone.
- Fourth-quarter TCV: the number that decides whether shorter contracts were a one-quarter effect, due with results in early 2027.
Quick take: Palantir beat on revenue ($2.313 billion, up 96 percent), EPS ($0.44) and the fourth-quarter guide ($2.65 billion), and raised the full year to $8.53 billion. The stock is still down about 6 percent premarket near $167 because total contract value grew only 6 percent, on shorter deals. Expect $160-$178; $155 needs the September lows to break, $184 needs buyers to accept the shorter-contract explanation.
FAQ
Why is Palantir stock down after earnings?
Revenue and guidance beat, but total contract value grew only 6 percent year on year, against 49 percent in the second quarter (TipRanks). The company says it signed shorter-than-usual eight-figure deals (Investing.com).
What did Palantir report for the third quarter of 2026?
Revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96 percent, and adjusted EPS of $0.44, against $2.18 billion and $0.41 expected (CNBC).
What is Palantir’s 2026 revenue guidance?
$8.530-$8.534 billion, raised from $8.150-$8.158 billion; fourth-quarter guidance is $2.649-$2.653 billion (TradingKey).
What was Palantir’s closing price on Monday 2 November?
$178.34, down 3.1 percent from Friday’s $184.11, before the report (Yahoo Finance).
Did US commercial revenue pass government revenue?
Yes, for the first time: US commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148 percent, against $953 million from the US government (CNBC).
What are analysts’ price targets for Palantir after Q3?
Reported moves include Morgan Stanley $233, Piper Sandler $235, Truist and Baird $250, Cantor $207 and RBC $130; the pre-report average was $221.27 (Benzinga, Investing.com, TipRanks).
Sources: Palantir third-quarter release via CNBC, 2 November (revenue, EPS, segment revenue, guidance, Karp quote); TradingKey, 3 November (US commercial estimate, guidance ranges, LSEG fourth-quarter consensus); TipRanks (TCV, US commercial remaining deal value, pre-report consensus); Investing.com call transcript (after-hours price, margin, Rule of 40, customers, operating income and cash flow guidance, Glazer and Karp quotes); Benzinga and Investing.com (analyst target changes, premarket quote); Yahoo Finance (closing prices, Tuesday premarket quote, September low).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.