Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, has warned that the world could be waiting up to two years for global oil inventories to return to healthy levels. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence conference in London, Nasser cautioned that the current squeeze on supplies may actually worsen as the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to destabilize the region. According to the CEO of the world’s largest oil producer, market stability remains elusive until there is full confidence in the safety of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategic importance of the Strait cannot be overstated, as it serves as a primary artery for roughly twenty percent of the planet’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Recent hostilities have turned this narrow waterway into a flashpoint, disrupting shipping lanes and triggering economic tremors worldwide. While G7 nations recently moved to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, Nasser suggests these measures may not be enough to offset deeper systemic losses.
Data provided by Nasser indicates that nearly three billion barrels of supply have vanished since military strikes began in late February. Although one billion barrels have been drawn from existing stocks to bridge the gap, much of this came from commercial inventories rather than strategic ones. With approximately six billion barrels remaining in storage deemed practically unavailable, Nasser noted that the entire distribution system is already straining under the weight of diminished capacity.
Despite these grim projections, oil prices remained mixed on Monday as some reports indicated slight increases in flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and parts of the Strait. However, tensions remain high on the water; recent maritime alerts reported an Iranian naval force intercepting a tanker near Oman and ordering it to turn back. This ongoing volatility suggests that while short term trades continue, the structural recovery of global energy buffers will be a slow and precarious process.